Monday, November 01, 2010

Ignore late polls and the stock market

Polls: Weekend polls are notoriously unreliable.  The sample is biased against people who have social lives on Friday and Saturday nights.  Sunday night might be considered a little better, but this time we're talking about Halloween.  Any poll conducted after Thursday night is to be ignored.

Stocks: The market has known for weeks now that the GOP will win the House and will probably fall at least one or two short in the Senate.  This is baked into the cake.  If this electoral outcome happens, no movement in stocks, either to the plus or minus, can be viewed as indicative of market approval or disapproval of the outcome.  If the DJIA goes up, I don't want to see Republicans gloating.  If it goes down, I don't want to see Dems doing the same.

The only caveat to this is if something unexpected happens.  If the GOP takes the Senate, or has an extraordinary showing the House that removes the likes of Barney Frank et al., then I might expect a modest pop in the stock market.  Likewise, if said wave election does not occur, then I would expect a sell-off of massive proportions.

In other news, my PA-related election predictions are up at the 'Cooler, and I put the California Senate race in the Hope for Change category.

3 comments:

cbullitt said...

Joe, just so you know, DPUD has come over to the Wordpress Dark Side. They are now at
http://doubleplusundead.com/

Wouldn't want you to miss eddibear's Nov.3 post.

JoeCollins said...

Yeah, I know. I forgot to update my linkage.

(I do blog there, ya know.)

Mutual Funds said...

Thank you for sharing your insights on this with all of us. I am sure there are many that are like me who needed to hear the message this sends.