Friday, October 29, 2010

Senate Picks: 8 or 9 GOP pick-ups

 Bold = Republican pick-up.

AK - Miller (R)-- Even if Murky wins this, it's still sort of an "R". The Dem is polling 3rd.
AR - Boozman (R)
CA - Boxer (D)
CO - Buck (R) -- Possible ultra surprise, watch for Tanc in the gub race.
CT - Blumenthal (D)
FL - Rubio (R)
IL - Kirk (R) -- This is a close one, but I can't see how people can vote for a guy who is literally a Mob banker.
IN - Coates (R)
KY - Paul (R)
LA - Vitter (R)
NV - Angle (R)
NH - Ayotte (R)
ND - Hoeven (R)
OH - Portman (R)
PA - Toomey (R)
UT - Lee (R)
WA - Murray (D) --One of the tightest races in the country.
WV - Manchin (D) -- I'm guessing the MinWage thing sealed that one.
WI - Johnson (R) -- Colossal upset, Johnson consistently polling over 50%.

On the optimistic side, Washington is closest to an additional Republican upset, thus it is the "or 9" in my "8 or 9". Generally speaking the bias this year should be towards Republican upsets, but this is an extremely Democratic state and Rossi has a history of having elections stolen from him.  But if there was to be an upset, this would be the one to look for.

This would leave the Senate 51 Dems to 49 GOP, or optimistically, 50/50 plus Joe Biden for Dem control.

At one point I could have seen California and West Virginia going our way, but I don't think those are in the cards any more.

Also, I think Vitter breaks 50% and avoids a run-off.
Of the races I expect Republicans to win, I am most concerned about Illinois, Colorado, and somewhat concerned about Pennsylvania.

From what I can tell, FiveThirtyEight has made the exact same individual predictions, but the simulation model produces a 52D to 48R Senate.  I understand where that's coming from, but I disagree.  No worse than 51-49.

So yes, Christine O'Donnell fans, there's a good chance you blew this one for us.  Thanks bunches.

 (Oops!  Did I do that?)


Larry said...

Regardless of what happens in Delaware tomorrow, the message has been sent: given the choice between Democrat and Democrat wanna-be, people will pick the genuine article.
Predictably the RNC will fail to understand this.
We will see what happens when there is a clear and definitive difference between the R candidate and the D candidate.
As I do not live in DE, I do not have a dog in this fight. I am, however, interested in the outcome.

JoeCollins said...

Larry, I basically agree with a couple of things you said:
1 - the RNC et al probably still don't understand what happened.
2 - The days of the pure RINO are probably over.

If I lived in Delaware I'd vote for O'Donnell. Just about anybody is better than a (supposedly former) bearded Marxist. I would have no illusions about her winning though.

I might have posted this on some other blog, but my basic complaint about O'Donnell was not one of positions, but of general candidate quality. I have to assume that her supporters were aware of this problem going in and chose to do so anyway. They were more interested in having Castle's scalp than in winning the seat.

Sorry, but that's where I part ways with the tea party.

Again, it's not about her being "too conservative", it's about ... well, the fact that she's a ditz. Pat Toomey yes. Christine O'Donnell, no.

As for my interest in the race... I have family in DE, DE shares a border w/ PA (-much of DE is in the Philly media market), and we have the dubious distinction of being the birthplace of our esteemed Vice President, whose seat this once was.