Monday, July 05, 2010

More Perot Stuff - Cotton Eye Joe

Where did they come from, where did they go?

Some random-ish findings about Perot voters...

Here's a better graph of the ideological distributions of 1992 Presidential voters:
You can see the right skew of the Bushies, the left skew/hump of the Clinton voters, and the Perot voters are pretty much right down the center, lining up almost perfectly with the electorate at large.

Where did they come from?  The sample size was small for this cross, but basically they were 2-to-1 Bush over Dukakis in 1988:



But, contrary to popular legend that Perot cost papa-Bush the election, Perot voters were very much of the "wrong track" persuasion, and wouldn't have voted for Bush anyway:


Where did they go?  The crosses were extremely small for 1996 voters in the ANES who recalled voting for Perot in 1992, but generally speaking they dispersed relatively evenly between Clinton and Dole in 1996, and of course some voted for that old coot Perot again.

(All data from the 1992 and 1996 ANES, weighted to reflect actual Presidential outcomes in those elections.)

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