Monday, November 03, 2008

Three Scenarios

I think the polls are a little off, but I'm not sure how much. Probably not enough to elect McCain. So I've created three scenarios on PredictNovember, "Polls basically correct", "Polls off a little", and the "McCain Optimistic Scenario".

If we assume that the polls are basically correct, and grant McCain North Carolina (which is a suspect assumption), we get this:

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If we assume that the polls are off a small but significant amount, McCain has a chance of taking Virginia and Ohio. However, that isn't good enough.

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The optimistic scenario for McCain relies on Pennsylvania. I could argue that McCain has a better chance of picking up Nevada, but it doesn't put him over the top and he hasn't spent time there, he's been trotting around PA.

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Here's the argument for Pennsylvania defying the polls. You've got the background of the "bitter" comments, Obama's opposition to concealed carry laws, and the recently revealed hostility toward the coal industry. In PA there could be several down-ticket House races that boost McCain: William Russell has a real chance of defeating Murtha, Barletta could unseat Kanjorski, and Hackett could beat Carney.

If the polls are off, then news networks "calling" states just after the polls close will not be reliable. Their projections are based on the same turnout models that the polls are based on. The proof will be in the actual results from PA, VA, OH, and NC.

That's not to say I believe McCain will win PA; in fact I believe it is highly improbable. But in the unlikely event we wake up to President-elect McCain, this is how I see it happening.

2 comments:

Samay said...

Sorry, there's no way McCain picks up Pennsylvania while still losing Iowa, Colorado and Nevada.

Plus, Obama might not be as coal-friendly, but McCain's nuclear comments probably don't sit too well in the Harrisburg/Hershey area.

Sockless Joe said...

I don't think McCain gets PA. I was just drawing a scenario.

Iowa has been long gone for some time. McCain is against ethanol.

Nuclear... TMI is still partially operational. I'm only 60 mi from Harrisburg, and I think there's more support for that than you realize.

Of course Obama has now hedged his anti-nuclear stance ("part of the mix" I think), but he's still against reprocessing which is idiotic.