Thursday, October 30, 2008

Senate Predictions

To the extent that the polls are actually reliable (--are they? one perspective--), I think most of the Senate seats are now predictable, barring any unique developments over the next couple of days.

Alaska - Dem Pick-Up : Having been convicted, Stevens will probably lose to Begich.

Colorado - Dem Pick-Up : Udall favored, though I find it odd that Udall is outperforming Obama, having nakedly changed some of his positions and running as an unconvincing centrist.

Georgia - Rep Keep : Chambliss favored, though he's underperforming McCain. He'll need some extra NRSC money to put him over.

Kentucky - Rep Keep : McConnell favored, see Georgia analysis above.

Louisiana - Dem Keep : Landrieu favored in a deeply split ticket, Prez vs Senate.

Maine - Rep Keep : Collins favored.

Minnesota - Rep Keep : Coleman favored, though the third party could be a monkey wrench. I find it difficult to accept that MN would elect Stewart Smalley, but then again they did elect Jesse Ventura...

Mississippi - Rep Keep : Wicker favored to replace Trent Lott.

Nebraska - Rep Keep : Johanns favored to replace Hagel.

New Hampshire - Dem Pick-up : Shaheen favored, though she is underperforming Obama.

New Jersey - Dem Keep : Lautenberg.

New Mexico - Dem Pick-up : Udall - yes, another Udall (cousins) - replaces retiring Domenici (R).

North Carolina- Dem Pick-up : Hagan favored over Dole, though this one could shake the other way if the polls are off just a little bit, as they very well may be.

EDIT: Dole and the NRSC are hitting Hagan for attending an "atheist fundraiser". Could just do the job.

Oregon - Dem Pick-up : Merkley over Smith, though an outside chance that Smith could pull it out as recent polls have large numbers of undecideds and/or within the MOE.

Virginia - Dem Pick-up : Warner (D) to replace the retiring Warner (R).

If I'm right, that gives us a net pick up of seven seats for the Democrats.

I am least confident in the results in NC and MN.

The current configuration is 51 Dems (49 + Sanders, Lieberman) to 49 Repub, so the predicted balance is to be 58 D to 42 R. Unless seriously shunned by the Democrats for his many sins against the party, Lieberman will continue to vote for Dem leadership.

If I could wave a magic wand and save just one of the Republicans likely to lose, I'd save Sununu. I don't always agree with him, but he's intellectually honest, and probably more conservative than Liz Dole in a lot of ways that are important to me. And besides, Dole's prior NRSC leadership committed the political murder of Steve Laffey in an idiotic attempt to save the turncoat Lincoln Chafee.


Venite, Missa est! said...

Hi Joseph
Larry B from Dan's blog. I enjoyed your rundown.
I am (perhaps naively) hoping the recent stock market run up is on the chance of McCain pulling it out and it not being as bad as it looked for Repubs overall.
Keep up the good work.

Sockless Joe said...

Thanks Larry.

After Dan's smackdown today I wondered if I should have gone so far into politics on SMM.

(In my defense, I was replying to somebody else, and I tried to keep it as non partisan and market oriented as possible. The point I was trying to make on SMM was that 58 Dems vs 60 Dems doesn't really make that big a difference on the policy front, so it shouldn't be an earth shattering market event either way.)

Yeah, if the market drifts up from here McCain has a long shot chance. If we go back down then I think we can forget about it.

Venite, Missa est! said...

What I thought Dan was unhappy about is the kind of breathless, " Just bought MSFT and sold 10 minutes later for a quick dollar."

It is going to be interesting to see where the conservative movement heads after this.