Tuesday, October 28, 2008

Fishy

Sunday's Meet the Press (transcript) was largely unremarkable, but one thing Chuck Todd said stood out to me (emphasis mine):

MR. TODD: You know, you look at these early voting numbers. Georgia's one of these states, along with North Carolina and Florida, that we're seeing early voting, and because they're states that have to keep track of these statistics, we know exactly how many African-American ballots are being turned in, how many Dem--and it is through the roof. There are--turnout among African-Americans might actually be somewhere between 95 and 100 percent in some of these places, in some of these states. And, in fact, we're seeing this shrinkage of a lead in Georgia for Senator McCain. It's actually got some folks wondering is South Carolina now in single digits? What's going on in Mississippi that this prediction of big African-American turnout that everybody thought might happen, we're seeing play out so far in some of these early voting states. And when you look at Georgia and compare, which is a lean McCain state, compare where McCain is here in Iowa, a lean Obama state, and that just shows you the battlefield here right now, the battleground, where it is shifted--even the lean McCain states are--Obama has a better shot at right now than McCain does in these lean Obama states.


Now, Obama, merely by virtue of being a Democrat is likely to bring down somewhere in the neighborhood of 90% (at least) of the Af-Am turnout, and being Af-Am he's likely to produce somewhat elevated Af-Am turnout. But 95-100% turnout is not a number that occurs naturally in democracies. Those are turnout numbers more in line with third world dictatorships.

How does that happen? Here's one thought - 123% registration with no voter ID provisions.

It amazes me that Chuck Todd could accept those numbers at face value.

6 comments:

Anonymous said...

Hey Joe - unrelated - what do you think the chances of Stevens getting elected post-indictment - I'm giving it 50%+....

Matt

Sockless Joe said...

You'd know better than I would. I'm a little surprised he won his primary, and was rooting for the oppo.

Uncle Ted brings home the bacon for sure.

Samay said...

I think Todd was saying that 95% of registered black voters would actually show up to the polls. And why wouldn't they? The Irish showed up in huge numbers for Kennedy (Especially the ones from the South Side of Chicago, which was actual voter fraud, unlike this) and this is something black people have been waiting for for over 40 years, if not 140.

Sockless Joe said...

I'm granting Todd's premise that there will be higher black turnout than ... well probably ever. But over 95%? Eh... I'm not sold.

Sockless Joe said...

Australia has compulsory voting and has turnout around 95%.

lovemissbailey said...

Higher than ever, yes. 95% without some kind of voter registration fraud, I'd be more than a little surprised. I hope the liberal illuminati report the correct figures after the election and don't fudge them like they do the polls.