Friday, October 17, 2008

Final Notice? Pretty please!

Dear RNC,

Look, I want McCain to win. But you guys tick me off sometimes.

Did you get the memo? This one's a little better, but it's still very abrasive.

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"FINAL NOTICE"? Is that a threat or a promise? Please make this my final notice - I could heat my house for the winter if I burned all the fund-raising mail I got in the last six months.

I have never given the RNC money, so I'm a little confused by the "renewal" thing. I mean, there's nothing for me to renew.

I also got a separate piece of mail today that included this bit from "John McCain":
My friend, the last thing we Republicans can afford is to have our hands tied behind our backs due to the fact that their candidate broke his promise to the American people and refused to accept the presidential campaign spending limit - which means they will have no limit as to what they can raise and spend.
[emphasis in original]

Gee, "McCain", what incredible irony. Who tied our hands? McCain-Feingold tied our hands. You boxed yourself in with your own stupid campaign finance bill and it bit you in the hind quarters. Go figure.

Regards,
Joe

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

Hey Joe - would like your take on the projections @ fivethirtyeight.com and the methodology behind the projections.

Matt

Sockless Joe said...

Wow. I knew that some people watched fivethirtyeight but I never really went there until now.

There's a lot of interesting stuff going on, and a lot of funky variables are accounted for in some way or another. Whether they're accounted for in the right way or not would probably take me more time than I care to invest just to figure out whether I can express an informed opinion.

For instance, they assume (somewhat reasonably) that MI is demographically somewhat similar to OH. True enough. But McCain has pulled out of MI, and it will be left to wander increasingly toward Obama. To what extent does MI then reflect upon OH, where McCain is putting forth some effort? Now, a lot of what they're doing will compensate for that, but I have no idea whether it will be enough or not.

There's also an uncertainty that I don't know if they've addressed, which is the general uncertainty about the weighting of all polls this year due to increased registration. Nobody really has any idea how some of this stuff is going to break. They're breaking the mold this year.

Predicting Presidential elections is sort of the Holy Grail of election modeling. At a certain point, however, you get diminishing returns on your efforts.

It looks over-modeled. But over-modeled is probably better than the utter lack of a model with the RealClearPolitics average.

Larry said...

Irony = McCain getting bit by...the McCain Feingold Incumbent Protection Act!