Monday, October 06, 2008

Electoral Map Update

Using the PredictNovember tool, I've changed some of my electoral map assignments. Current breakdown is Obama 264, McCain 185, Unassigned 89.



Movers:
PA, NH, NM from Unassigned to Obama

-The right campaign could possibly move PA, but there seems to be no sign that the right sort of campaign will be waged.

KS from Unassigned to McCain - a "duh" move that I didn't do previously due to a lack of info.

FL, NC from McCain to Unassigned
-I think McCain will get these back, but the momentum is unmistakable. Also, Liddy Dole is a very weak statewide candidate in NC.

Remaining Unassigned:
OH - I think there has been some bad polling, and McCain will eventually get OH, Dem voter fraud aside.

VA - Very close race. Potentially some polls badly weighted on Party ID due to the late primary crossover effect.

CO - Leaning Obama, but shouldn't this one have been put away by the Dem Convention?

NV - Also very close. No insight.

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

"I think there has been some bad polling, and McCain will eventually get OH, Dem voter fraud aside"

That's kind of a strange toss-off line to throw out there. Voter fraud?

~MJA

"I went to the store, bought some eggs, murdered the dairy guy, checked the baked goods, then went home."

Sockless Joe said...

That would be the busing of homeless, students, and others around to register and vote on the same day. (And then busing them to several other polling places.) Also, the refusal to allow proper poll watching.

NYT:"Republicans argue that Ohio law requires voters to be registered for at least 30 days before they cast an absentee ballot and does not allow same-day registration and voting."

My general position on potential election fraud is "avoid by any and all means". That means absolutely no voting systems without an auditable paper trail, and photo ID so no dead people, non-citizens, non-residents vote.

Anonymous said...

Not questioning the validity of the statement. I just thought it was odd that you slipped it in there so randomly. Normally with a big claim like that, you cite supporting info (you as in Sockless Joe, not you as in 'one cites').

~MJA