Monday, September 22, 2008

PredictNov - PA toss up

I've been fiddling with the electoral map tool at, and I've made a move I didn't expect to make. I'm taking PA out of the Obama slot and putting it at toss-up. The RCP average is slightly in Obama's favor, but two recent polls are tied, and there is a lot of debate about how to weight the polls on party affiliation due to the late primary. There are a lot of small-town idjits who bitterly cling to their guns and Bibles, and a slew of potentially disaffected Hillary voters too.

I think Ohio will go for McCain, but I'm not quite confident enough in that to assign it to him yet.

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Samay said...

I'd have Montana and North Dakota going tossup before Kansas - Sebelius is great and all, but not that good. Also, here in Chicago there's a big push to get people to go to Missouri for a day and knock on doors and phonebank. So that could change things as well.

McCain's done a great job in PA - forcing Obama to defend more turf in an expensive state will really help him out, until he totally sucks in the debates.

Sockless Joe said...

KS was left as a toss up more of a lack of information or even a good feeling.

I think I read recently that Obama was pulling out of ND and a few other states, all of which made perfect sense (Georgia, Alaska, etc).

Gun to my head, PA goes for Obama. PredictNov doesn't have "leaners" or that's where I'd put PA. Even assuming that all the new Dem registrants are closet Republicans (which is obviously not the case), there's still a Dem registration advantage.