Sunday, April 20, 2008

PA-5 Preliminary Analysis

I haven't decided which candidate I will be voting for.

The basic formula is "the most conservative candidate who has a chance of winning". There are two moving parts to his mechanism, who is conservative and who can win.

Exploring the idea of who can win, I've been poking around the FEC website to see how everybody's finances are. These graphics are based on reports from the end of March/beginning of April (about three weeks ago), and in some cases are mysteriously incomplete. Krupa seems not to have filed any financial paperwork, and several candidates do not have contributions broken down to the individual level as is required (Exarchos, Stroup, Thompson).

Total Dollar receipts, receipts of Individual contributions, and Total Disbursements:
PA05 Finances Summary

Total Dollar of Individual Contributions, all candidates:
PA05 Individual Contribs

Since Shaner and Walker seem to have so much personal baggage and dominate the financials, let's zoom in without them...

Total Receipts, Individual Contributions, and Disbursements, Ex-Shaner and Walker:
PA05 Finances ex Shaner and Walker

Seeing all of this, Stroehmann may be the beneficiary of a Shaner/Walker meltdown. After getting past Stroehmann, the other candidates look much the same. Even Thompson's weakness must have been mitigated by outgoing Rep. Peterson's endorsement.

I hope to post some policy analysis soon, along with my final decision.

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