Monday, March 31, 2008

Prediction: Obama has a chance in Pennsylvania

Evidence?

1) Obama is actually spending time jaunting around the state. Obama doesn't need Pennsylvania to get the nomination, and he hasn't been expected to get it. Clinton could be more efficiently stopped in later states if he would let PA slide. Campaigning here is an aggressive move.

Against all logic, he actually stopped in a restaurant in Mifflin County near my hometown of Lewistown. Mifflin is very small, very Republican, and very white. On the flip side, the Democrats here aren't under the thumbs of the Philly or Pittsburgh political machines.

2) Sen. Bob Casey Jr., the pinnacle of spineless political weather vanes, has endorsed Obama.

Polls? Eh... Obama has to make up no less than ten points... but I think somebody thinks he has a shot.

EDIT: The latest Rasmussen poll from 3/31 has Obama down by five, and HRC under the magical 50% mark. For what it's worth, I tend to have greater faith in Rasmussen than many other polls.

EDIT 2 : (4/02/08) I don't believe the PPP poll from 04/01 showing Obama ahead by 2. Besides the fact that I've never heard of them before, (1) They're partisan, which is a red flag, (2) They aren't based in the DC area, nor in PA, (3) Their previous poll from as recent as 3/16 had the spread at Clinton +26, which was the largest measured spread going back to the beginning of December where Quinnipiac had the spread at Clinton +28.

2 comments:

John Rich said...

Youns in the middle of the state need to stop and smell the Iron City.

I spent some years in Pittsburgh and environs, and while I'm not current, what I know from working in the Mon Valley is that white ethnic union guys are not going to go for Obama.

For a host of reasons, some residual racism, perhaps. But mostly because of the very slickness of Obama. He is not real.

It's no accident that, besides blacks, those who like him best are affluent white whine, latte-sippin, slipper-wearing poofs.

Sorry, did I write "white whine?" I meant white-wine sipping whiners.

I think that Hillary will win Western PA, or, as we used to call it, Pennsyltucky. And win handily.

And thereby continue the Dems pain, perhaps even, at the end of primary season in June, garnering an absolute majority of the actual votes cast.

Sockless Joe said...

"Youns". Heh. I want to jam a pencil in my eardrum every time I hear somebody say that.

I think you're right about the union vote in the 'Burgh area.

It will be interesting to see how Philly and the Philly burbs break down since Rendell and Nutter have gone HRC. Aside from machine politics it would otherwise be custom made for Obama - the state's largest AfAm population surrounded by the richest/whitest population.

I guess the basic point of my speculation is that Obama doesn't need to be here rolling gutter balls. I would thus infer that he must have some polling data suggesting he can get a lot closer than he currently is.